2015-Publications

  • Andrews, M. B., J. R. Knight and L. J. Gray (2015). A simulated lagged response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10/Issue 5, p-p. 54022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054022.
  • Baehr J., K. Fröhlich, M. Botzet, D. I. V. Domeisen, L. Kornblueh, D. Notz, R. Piontek, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, W. A. Müller (2015). The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2723-2735, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7.
  • Batté, L. and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Stochastic atmospheric perturbations in the EC-Earth3 global coupled model: impact of SPPT on seasonal forecast quality. Climate Dynamics,45, 3419-3439, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2548-7.
  • Benestad, R.E., D. Chen, A. Mezghani, L. Fan, K. Parding (2015). On using principal components to represent stations in empirical-statistical downscaling. Tellus A, 67, 28326, doi:10.3402/tellusa.v67.28326.
  • Benestad, R.E., A. Mezghani (2015), On downscaling probabilities for heavy 24-hour precipitation events at seasonal-to-decadal scales. Tellus A 2015, 67, 25954, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.25954.
  • Buontempo, C., C.D. Hewitt, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and S. Dessai (2015). Climate service development, delivery and use in Europe at monthly to inter-annual timescales. Climate Risk Management, 7, pp. 1-50, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2014.10.002.
  • Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault and C.L. Bruyere (2015). Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 44, 1801-1821, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5.
  • Caron, L.-P., M. Boudreault and S.J. Camargo (2015). On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0377.1.
  • Caron, L.-P., L. Hermanson and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2015GL063303.
  • Coelho, C.A.S., C.P. de Oliveira, T. Ambrizzi, M.S. Reboita, C.B. Carpenedo, J.L.P.S. Campos, A.C.N. Tomaziello, L.A. Pampuch, M.S. Custódio, L.M.M. Dutra, R.P. Da Rocha, A. Rehbein (2015). The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. Climate Dynamics, vol. 46, Issue 11-12, pp 3737-3752, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2800-1.
  • Corti, S., T. Palmer, M. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, S. Drijfhout, N. Dunstone, W. Hazeleger, J. Kröger, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith, J.-S. von Storch, B. Wouters (2015). Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment. Journal of Climate, 28, 4454-4470, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1.
  • Davis, M., R. Lowe, S. Steffen, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and X. Rodó (2015). Barriers to using climate information: Challenges in communicating probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. In //Communicating Climate-Change and Natural Hazard Risk and Cultivating Resilience (J.L. Drake et al. eds.)//, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, 45, 95-113, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-20161-0_7.
  • Day, J., S. Tietsche, M. Collins, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, A. Guillory, W. Hurlin, M. Ishii, S. Keeley, D. Matei, R. Msadek, M. Sigmond, H. Tatebe, E. Hawkins (2015). The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 8809-8833, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-8809-2015.
  • Domeisen, D., A. Butler, K. Fröhlich, M. Bittner, W.A. Mueller, J. Baehr. (2015). Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system, Journal of Climate, vol. 28, 256-271, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1.
  • Eden, J. M., G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling (2015). A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction. Geophysical Model Development Discussions, 8, 3941-3970, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-3941-2015.
  • Fučkar, N.S., V. Guemas, N.C. Johnson, F. Massonnet and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Clusters of interannual sea ice variability in the northern hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 45, 1-17, doi:10.​1007/​s00382-015-2917-2.
  • García-Serrano, J., V. Guemas and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2539-2555, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2370-7.
  • Guemas, V., J. García-Serrano, A. Mariotti, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and L.-P. Caron (2015). Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 687, 580-597, doi:10.1002/qj.2379.
  • Jeong, H-I., J.-B. Ahn, J.-Y. Lee, A. Alessandri, and H. Hendon (2015). Interdecadal Change of Interannual Variability and Predictability of Two Types of ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 44, pp 1073–1091, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2127-3.
  • Jung, T., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Goessling, V. Guemas, C. Bitz, C. Buontempo, R. Caballero, E. Jakobson, J. Jungclaus, M. Karcher, T. Koenigk, D. Matei, J. Overland, T. Spengler and S. Yang (2015). Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00121.1.
  • Karpechko, A. Y., K. A. Peterson, A. A. Scaife, J. Vainio and H. Gregow (2015). Skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice cover. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, issue 4, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044007.
  • Koenigk, T., M. Caian, G. Nikulin, S. Schimanke. (2015). Regional Arctic sea ice variations as predictor for winter climate conditions. Climate Dynamics, vol. 46, Issue 1, pp 317–337 doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2586-1.
  • MacLeod, D.A., H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, A. Weisheimer (2015). Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.2631.
  • Massonnet, F., V. Guemas, N. Fuckar and F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). The 2014 high record of Antarctic sea ice extent, in Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 96, S163-S167, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00093.1.
  • Massonnet, F. (2015). Communicating climate complexity. Commentary in Physics Today, 68, 8, doi:10.1063/PT.3.2894.
  • Manzanas, R., S. Brands, D. San-Martín, A. Lucerod, C. Limbod, J.M. Gutierrez (2015). Statistical Downscaling in the Tropics Can Be Sensitive to Reanalysis Choice: A Case Study for Precipitation in the Philippines. Journal of Climate, 02/2015, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00331.1.
  • Mignot, J., J. García-Serrano, D. Swingedouw, A. Germe, S. Nguyen, P. Ortega, E. Guilyardi, S. Ray (2015). Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2898-1.
  • Lowe, R., M.S. Carvalho, C.A.S. Coelho, C. Barcellos, T.C. Bailey, D.B. Stephenson and X. Rodó (2015). Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics. Vol. 15, No. 1, p20, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71031-X.
  • Orsolini, Y., R. Senan, F. Vitart, G. Balsamo, A. Weisheimer and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8.
  • Osman, M., C.S. Vera and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere from CHFP models. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2710-2.
  • Pepler, A.S., L.B. Díaz, C. Prodhomme, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Kumar (2015). The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, Pages 68–77, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005.
  • Prodhomme, C., F. Doblas-Reyes, O. Bellprat, and E. Dutra (2015). Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe, Climate Dynamics, published online, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4.
  • Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., E. Mohino, C.R. Mechoso, C. Caminade, M. Biasutti, M. Gaetani, J. García-Serrano, E.K. Vizy, K. Cook, Y. Xue, I. Polo, T. Losada, L. Druyan, B. Fontaine, J. Bader, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, L. Goddard, S. Janicot, A. Arribas, W. Lau, A. Colman, M. Vellinga, D.P. Rowell, F. Kucharski and A. Voldoire (2015). Variability and predictability of west African droughts: A review of the role of sea surface temperature anomalies. . Journal of Climate, 28, 4034-4060, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00130.1.
  • Scaife, A. A., A. Yu. Karpechko, M. P. Baldwin, A. Brookshaw, A. H. Butler, R. Eade, M. Gordon, C. MacLachlan, N. Martin, N. Dunstone and D. Smith (2015). Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi:10.1002/asl.598.
  • Sévellec, F., and A.V. Fedorov (2015). Optimal excitation of AMOC decadal variability: Links to the subpolar ocean. Progress In Oceanography, vol. 132, pp 287–304, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.02.006.
  • Shi, W., N. Schaller, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer, A. Weisheimer (2015). Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062829.
  • Stroeve, J., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, V. Guemas, S. Howell, F. Massonnet, and S. Tietsche (2015). Improving predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. EOS,doi:10.1029/2015EO031431.
  • Suckling, E. B., E. Hawkins, J. M. Eden and G. J. van Oldenborgh (2015). An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: A global analysis. Climate Dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 3941–3970, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-3941-2015.
  • Weber, R.T.J., A. Carrassi and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Linking the anomaly initialization approach to the mapping paradigm: a proof-of-concept study. Monthly Weather Review, 2015 ; e-View . doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00398.1.