Research Theme 3

WP3.1 Impact of improved initialisation and sample size (MeteoF)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to examine to which extent a better description of the initial situation of the atmosphere/ocean/soil/sea-ice system leads to an increased seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) forecast quality and to assess the improved reliability of the estimates by using a long hindcast period.

WP3.2 Improvements in ensemble generation (UHAM)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to implement and test a variety of techniques for ensemble generation, with the aim of understanding the impact on the forecast quality, with a particular focus on increasing forecast reliability at different forecast time scales, to deal with the uncertainty due to initial conditions and its impact on error growth and to investigate the benefit of initializing the ensemble predictions using a realistic set of initial conditions or a set of initial conditions consistent with the model attractor.