Research Theme 4

WP4.1 Impact of increased horizontal resolution (SMHI)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to explore the potential benefits of increased dynamical model resolution on seasonal-decadal (s2d) forecast quality, with a primary aim of performing a set of coordinated, multi-model seasonal to decadal hindcasts and estimating the gains in forecast quality against equivalent lower resolution hindcasts.

WP4.2 Impact of improved climate-vegetation representation and boundary and mixed layer vertical resolution (CERFACS)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to examine to what extent refined climate-vegetation interaction and increases in ocean and atmosphere vertical resolution can improve seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) forecast quality due to a more realistic representation of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere heat, momentum and water fluxes.

WP4.3 Stratosphere and changing radiative forcing (ECMWF)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to establish the impact on the seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) forecasts of improvements that lead to a more realistic stratosphere and that account for variations in radiative forcing from ozone, aerosols and solar irradiance, while guiding improvements in the forecast quality of operational forecast systems that might be made by including these presently untapped sources of skill.

WP4.4 Addressing model inadequacy (UOXF)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to develop cutting-edge methodologies to address model error uncertainty in climate forecast systems as part of the “seamless prediction” programme, to bring into the climate arena developments from numerical weather prediction (NWP).