Research Theme 5

WP5.1 Empirical predictions (UREAD)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to develop a generalised prototype empirical prediction system for land climate variables on seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) time scales.

WP5.2 Local predictions based on statistical and dynamical downscaling (CSIC)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to adapt and calibrate statistical methodologies for seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) downscaling, including a thorough assessment of the resulting forecast quality and the development and documentation of a public, stand-alone package suitable for direct application by stakeholders; the added value (w.r.t. both global-model and statistically-downscaled predictions) of dynamical downscaling methods for seasonal predictions will be validated in two experiments over Europe and South America.

WP5.3 Calibration and combination (INPE)

The main objective of this Work Package (WP) is to produce reliable, well-calibrated probabilistic seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) predictions by developing state-of-the-art statistical methods for the calibration and combination of s2d predictions, able to integrate information from all available sources, including dynamical and empirical forecast systems.