2014-Publications

  • Alessandri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Cherchi, J-Y. Lee, B. Wang, S. Materia, and A. Navarra (2014). Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset using dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, Volume 143, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00187.1.
  • Alessandri, A., M. De Felice, N. Zeng, A. Mariotti, Y. Pan , A. Cherchi, J-Y. Lee, B. Wang, K-J. Ha, P. Ruti, and V. Artale (2014). Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21stcentury. Nature Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/srep07211.
  • Asif, M., A. Cencerrado, O. Mula-Valls, D. Manubens, A. Cortés and F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2014). Case study in large scale climate simulations: Optimizing the speedup/efficiency balance in supercomputing environments. 14th International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications, doi:10.1109/ICCSA.2014.57.
  • Asif, M., A. Cencerrado, O. Mula-Valls, D. Manubens, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Cortés (2014). Impact of I/O and data management in ensemble large scale climate forecasting using EC-Earth3. Procedia Computer Science, 29, 2370-2379, doi:10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.221.
  • Baehr, J. and R. Piontek (2014). Ensemble initialization of the oceanic component of a coupled model through bred vectors at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 453-461, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-453-2014.
  • Buontempo, C., C.D. Hewitt, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and S. Dessai (2014). Climate service development, delivery and use in Europe at monthly to inter-annual timescales. Climate Risk Management, 6, 1-5, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2014.10.002.
  • Caron, L.P, M. Boudreault and C.L. Bruyère​ (2014). Changes in large-scale controls of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity with the phases of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation​. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2186-5.
  • Carrassi, A., R. J. T. Weber, V. Guemas, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Asif, D. Volpi (2014). Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, doi:10.5194/npg-21-521-2014.
  • De Felice, M., A. Alessandri, F. Catalano (2014). Seasonal climate forecasts for medium-term electricity demand forecasting. Applied Energy, vol. 137, pp. 435-444, doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.10.030.
  • Eade, R., D. Smith, A. Scaife, E. Wallace, N. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, N. Robinson (2014). Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world? Geophysical Research Letters, August 2014, doi:10.1002/2014GL061146.
  • Fuckar, N., D. Volpi, V. Guemas, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2014). A posteriori adjustment of near-term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 41, Issue 14, pages 5200–5207, 28 July 2014, doi:10.1002/2014GL060815.
  • García Serrano J., V. Guemas, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2014). Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2370-7.
  • Guemas, V., L. Auger, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2014). Hypothesis Testing for Autocorrelated Short Climate Time Series. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53 doi:org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-064.1.
  • Guemas V., L. Auger, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Rust, A. Ribes (2014). Dependencies in Statistical Hypothesis Tests for Climate Time Series. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (11), 1666-1667.
  • Guemas, V., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, M., Chevallier, J. J. Day, M. Déqué, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. Fuckar, A. Germe, E. Hawkins, S. Keeley, T. Koenigk, D. Salas y Mélia, S. Tietsche (2014). A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1002/qj.2401.
  • Guemas, V., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, K. Mogensen, S. Keeley, Y. Tang (2014). Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2095-7.
  • Guemas, V., J. García Serrano, A. Mariotti, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, L-P. Caron (2014). Prospects for decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2379.

  • Hermanson, L., N. Dunstone, R. Eade, N. Robinson, M. Andrews, J. Knight, D. Smith (2014). Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and its associated impacts. GRL, 41 (14), pp5167-5174. doi: 10.1002/2014GL060420.

  • Jia X., J-Y. Lee, A. Alessandri and K-J. Ha (2014). Interdecadal change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal climate prediction skill: Part I. The leading forced mode of atmospheric circulation. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, Issue 5-6, pp 1595-1609, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1988-1.

  • Lowe, R., C. Barcellos, C.A.S. Coelho, T.C. Bailey, G. E. Coelho, R. Graham, T.  Jupp, W. M. Ramalho, M. Sá Carvalho, D. B. Stephenson, X. Rodó (2014). Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 14, doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70781-9.
  • MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K. A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D., Scaife, A. A., Gordon, M., Vellinga, M., Williams, A., Comer, R. E., Camp, J., Xavier, P. and Madec, G. (2014). Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. doi: 10.1002/qj.2396.
  • Manzanas, R., M. D. Frías, A. S. Cofiño, J. M. Gutiérrez (2014). Validation of 40 year multimodel seasonal precipitation forecasts: The role of ENSO on the global skill. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD020680.
  • Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, D. Smith (2014). Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2014GL059259.
  • Ray, S. D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, E. Guilyardi (2014). Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005. Climate Dynamics, Volume 44, Issue 9, pp 2333-2349, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2358-3.
  • Rodrigues L.R.L., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, C. Augusto dos Santos Coelho (2014). Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 42  doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1779-8.
  • Rodrigues L.R.L., J. Gracía Serrano, F. J. Doblas-Reyes (2014). Seasonal forecast quality of the West African monsoon rainfall regimes by multiple forecast systems. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 119, Issue 13, pages 7908–7930, 7 July 2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD021316.
  • Scaife, A. A., A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R. T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, D. Fereday, C. K. Folland, M. Gordon, L. Hermanson, J. R. Knight, D. J. Lea, C. MacLachlan, A. Maidens, M. Martin, A. K. Peterson, D. Smith, M. Vellinga, E. Wallace, J. Waters, A. Williams (2014). Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059637.
  • Scaife, A.A., M. Athanassiadou, M. Andrews, A. Arribas, M. Baldwin, N. Dunstone, J. Knight, C. MacLachlan, E. Manzini, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith, T. Stockdale and A. Williams (2014). Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Geophysical Research Letter, 41, doi:10.1002/2013GL059160.
  • Seferian, R., L. Bopp, M. Gehlen, D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, E. Guilyardi, J. Servonnat (2014). Multi-year prediction of Tropical Pacific Marine Productivity. PNAS, vol. 111 no. 32, doi:10.1073/pnas.1315855111.
  • Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, R. Eade and J. R. Knight (2014). Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi:10.1002/qj.2479.
  • Weisheimer, A., S. Corti, T.N. Palmer and F. Vitart (2014). Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parameterisations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 372, 201820130290, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0290.
  • Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2014). On the Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. J. R. Soc. Interface, 11, doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.1162.
  • Weiss, M., P. Miller, B. van den Hurk, T. van Noije, S. Stefanescu, R. Haarsma, L.H. van Ulft, W. Hazeleger, P. Le Sager, B. Smith en G. Schurgers (2014). Contribution of dynamic vegetation phenology to decadal climate predictability. Journal of Climate, Volume 27 Issue 22, pages 8563–8577 November 2014,  http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00684.1